What TSCO's Recent Earnings Track Record Says
Across the last eight reported quarters, Tractor Supply (TSCO) delivered a 3-out-of-8 beat rate, or 38%, with an average earnings surprise of -12.8%. That negative surprise average is a directional signal: even when the headline result has been close to forecasts, the distribution has tilted toward misses. The average five-trading-day price move after those eight reports was -1.87%, classified as a "down" drift, meaning post-earnings weakness has tended to extend past the immediate reaction. The most recent four quarters show the dispersion behind the averages. On July 23, 2026, TSCO reported EPS of $0.81 versus a $0.818 estimate, a -1% miss, and the stock rose 2.31% the next day but drifted -0.36% over the following five sessions. On April 21, 2026, EPS of $0.31 missed the $0.3414 estimate by -9.2%, producing a -1.54% next-day drop and a -10.06% five-day drift. On January 29, 2026, a -7% miss ($0.43 vs $0.4623) was met with only a -0.16% next-day move, followed by a +6.91% five-day rally. The lone recent beat, October 23, 2025, saw $0.49 vs $0.4822, or a +1.6% surprise, yet the stock still finished the next day -0.12% lower and drifted -3.96% over five days. The lesson is not that TSCO must fall; it is that the historical pattern around earnings has been skewed enough that follow-through deserves equal weight with the headline number.
Options Flow and the October 2026 Earnings Setup
TSCO's next scheduled report is October 22, 2026 before the open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.42. At the current snapshot, the stock was $31.845, essentially on top of its 50-day EMA at $31.79, with an RSI of 57.4 and a sector classification of Consumer Cyclical/Specialty Retail. Because price is sitting right on that intermediate average, options positioning around the $31.50 to $32 strike band can act as a local volatility fulcrum. The $0.42 estimate is the unofficial consensus, but the market's real expectation is embedded in the implied move priced by near-term options. With an average earnings surprise of -12.8% and an average five-day drift of -1.87%, participants may be pricing a wider left-tail outcome than a simple beat/miss model would imply. If the reported result deviates materially from the implied distribution, gamma flows can amplify the move as dealers rebalance delta exposure. Watch whether volume concentrates in at-the-money straddles or in out-of-the-money wings; elevated wing activity can indicate positioning for a surprise outside the -1% to -9% miss band observed since October 2025.
A Disciplined Earnings-Day Checklist for TSCO
On October 22, 2026, a disciplined trader watches three things: the headline surprise relative to the $0.42 consensus, the immediate price move versus the options-implied move, and the five-day follow-through, because the first-day print can be deceptive. The January 29, 2026 quarter is the cleanest example of that trap: a -7% miss produced only a -0.16% next-day drop, then a 6.91% gain over the next week. Traders also compare the post-earnings price to the 50-day EMA of $31.79 and the recent range, and they note that an RSI of 57.4 is not flashing an extreme momentum signal. Sector dynamics inside Consumer Cyclical/Specialty Retail can add macro noise, so comparing TSCO's move to its Specialty Retail peers adds useful context. Above all, the 38% beat rate and -1.87% average drift are historical descriptions of a distribution, not a forecast. For a deeper dive into how institutional models are currently positioned ahead of the report, take a look at the full institutional verdict on TSCO.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often has TSCO beaten earnings estimates over the last eight quarters?
Over the last eight reported quarters, TSCO beat estimates 3 times and missed 5 times, a 38% beat rate. The most recent beat was on October 23, 2025, when actual EPS of $0.49 exceeded the $0.4822 estimate by 1.6%.
What has the average post-earnings move been for TSCO?
The average five-trading-day price move after earnings across the last eight quarters was -1.87%, classified as a down drift. Examples include a -10.06% five-day drift after the April 21, 2026 miss and a +6.91% five-day drift after the January 29, 2026 miss.
When is TSCO's next earnings report and what is the consensus estimate?
TSCO's next scheduled earnings report is October 22, 2026, before the market open. The consensus EPS estimate is $0.42. At the current snapshot, the stock was $31.845, with a 50-day EMA of $31.79 and an RSI of 57.4.
| Reported | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | 1D Move | 5D Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $0.81 | $0.818 | -1% | +2.31% | -0.36% |
| 2026-04-21 | $0.31 | $0.3414 | -9.2% | -1.54% | -10.06% |
| 2026-01-29 | $0.43 | $0.4623 | -7% | -0.16% | +6.91% |
| 2025-10-23 | $0.49 | $0.4822 | +1.6% | -0.12% | -3.96% |
| 2025-07-24 | $0.81 | $0.802 | +1% | - | - |
| 2025-04-24 | $0.34 | $0.3681 | -7.6% | - | - |
Get the institutional verdict on TSCO
Seven-seat 21-ERT council. Pre-print forecast signed before the earnings release. Post-print grade, published in public. Every verdict sealed with a cryptographic receipt.
Read the TSCO verdict at Gamma QCVerify authenticity
Every Gamma QC verdict is signed with a cryptographic receipt at issuance. Independently verify any published verdict at attest.gammaqc.com. This educational primer is content-only and not itself signed; the institutional verdict at the link above is.